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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Nick states, "I am not worried in the slightest about 600 billion of capex... I think this is bigger than the industrial revolution." He explicitly prefers owning the "company making this happen" (infrastructure) over the model companies. AI capability is improving on a "super exponential" curve. Regardless of which model wins (OpenAI vs. Anthropic vs. Google), they all require massive compute and energy. The infrastructure layer is the "pick and shovel" play that hedges against model obsolescence. Long the physical infrastructure powering AI. Overbuilding of capacity if AI monetization slows down. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Would BlackRock Try to Save Bitcoin From the ...
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Feb 11, 2026
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AVOID
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Nick calls model companies "capital incinerators" and notes that OpenAI's revenue performance obligations (RPOs) are essentially "bad debt" because users might switch models easily. There is no moat in the model layer; Gemini, Claude, and Grok are interchangeable. Valuation is based on hype rather than defensible cash flows. Avoid the model layer due to commoditization risks and excessive private valuations. A single model achieves AGI first and captures a complete monopoly. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Would BlackRock Try to Save Bitcoin From the ...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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Nick argues the "VC backed flashy all token side is done" and that 90% of 2025 token launches are down. He pivots to "boring stuff" like stablecoins and tokenized equity. The market is maturing from speculative governance tokens to assets with real utility or cash flow. Capital will flow into infrastructure that powers banking activity (stablecoins) rather than speculative L1s. Long the infrastructure of "boring" crypto (Stablecoins, Tokenization). Regulatory bans on stablecoins or strict KYC requirements killing adoption. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Would BlackRock Try to Save Bitcoin From the ...
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